Am i "tracking" towards the top 100?

We hear this all the time from coaches and Tennis Australia – which junior players do we have “tracking” towards the top 100 professional rankings?  Why is this so important and what does it mean?

 

The best way I can explain this is using a marathon analogy. The elite tennis journey is a long one – like a marathon. The first marathon goes from when players start playing tennis (let’s say age 5-6 on average) through to 18 years old – when junior tennis finishes. And the second marathon starts when this pack of players starts pro tennis. 

 

A calculated guess is that there are about 400 elite junior players training and competing IN EACH BIRTH YEAR (it’s a truly international sport, think of the whole of Europe, US, Canada, South America, Australasia – it could be more than 400 for sure). At the age of 12, 14, 16 and 18, we can take a look at these 400 players and see where they are sitting within their own birth year in that marathon race (by looking at ITF rankings and the UTR plus national and international results). Out of that 400, there is going to be a “lead pack”.  Let’s say this consists of the top 10% (40 players) who have had the best results (or rated highest on the UTR) at each stage throughout juniors. 

 

Ideally, you really want to be in that lead pack at some stage in junior tennis.  Because if you think of a marathon race, the further you fall behind the lead pack, the more difficult it is to catch up. This is the same in tennis development!  If I drop too far behind, it means I will need to “improve” quicker than the lead pack (who are also improving). Tennis as we know is a very difficult sport and requires a combination of skills (technical, tactical, mental and physical) and improving is hard. But it becomes harder if you are playing catch up as well! If I am a kid playing elite tennis and I am a fair way behind that lead pack (which means I am always losing to them, often easily) it becomes tougher and tougher mentally to stick with it and to keep persevering. It “feels” like I am not making any headway – even though I am improving as a player as well. Easier for an adult to deal with, but much more difficult for a developing junior player. 

 

We know that approximately 15 players from each birth year, IN THE WORLD, will become top 100 players. Yes, ONLY 15!!! The statistics tell us that the MAJORITY of those 15 (lets say 8-9) will come from that “lead pack”. And the higher you sit in the lead pack, the better chance you have of being one of those 15 players. If you are number 1, then your chances are probably 80-90% of being one of those top 15. However if you are 100th in the marathon and outside of the lead pack, your chances realistically drop to less than 5%. The further you are behind, your chances become lower and lower. This is not justmy , there has been plenty of research done than shows that this is an accurate assessment. 

 

Now there will ALWAYS be “outlier” players who have very successful pro careers – which gives us all hope! Those who were not “tracking” towards top 100 during juniors.

I discuss the  different pathways players take to the top 100

To name just a few out of Australia in recent times – these would be Wayne Arthurs, Pat Rafter (and he got to World No.1!), Marinko Matosevic, John Millman, Astra Sharma, Aleks Vukic. 

  They were all “good” junior players – don’t get me wrong – but they weren’t “tracking” in that lead international pack throughout their junior careers. 

 

This is because once junior tennis finishes, the “pro tennis” marathon begins!  It would be fair to say that those who finished in the “lead pack” at the end of the junior marathon, now have a solid head start in the race to the top 100. The “average” player will break into the top 100 at age 23 (female) and 24 (male) – so still another 5-6 years of full-time tennis – and a long tough journey. 

 

There is no doubt that pro tennis differs from junior tennis, and this gives those outlier players a chance to catch up. Some athletes who’s games were more suited to junior tennis, just won’t hold up in pro tennis. And of course, there will be the late developers who greatly improve physically and mentally as they mature and these great qualities don’t come through until they are sometimes well into their 20s. 

 

I am a statistics guy, and the statistics don’t lie! Research has been done going back 20-30 years. This research has looked at top 100 players, and then tracked these athletes backwards to see where they were ranked at age 12,14,16 and 18 years old. The jury is NOT out!  There is no doubt that if you can start in the lead pack and stay in the lead pack all the way through juniors and you are “tracking”  - then your chances of being a top 100 player are far better than if you were not.   Progressing on to the pro tour and into the top 100 is still going to take a phenomenal effort – requiring perserverance, persistence, competitiveness, skill, finances, athleticism, weapons, guts, courage etc etc – however it will be easier than if you are a long way back in the marathon race that is the elite tennis journey.